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Post by Lord Bismarcus on Jun 18, 2008 10:03:38 GMT -5
Do they not see the writing on the wall?The oil money isn't going to keep on flowing in like it has for the past 90 years. It's going to trickle away to almost nothingness within our lifetime, and when that happens the residents of the vast blinding ocean of the Arabian peninsula will have nothing left to sell to the world. What are these stratospheric buildings going to be used for then? Navigational markers for the Arabs once they return to their nomadic way of life?
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Post by Big League Chew on Jun 18, 2008 10:07:34 GMT -5
Well, I wonder if we'll see a wholesale change within our lifetime. I think cars usage will shrink, but overall oil usage? It'll shrink, methinks, but it won't dry up completely within our lifetimes. There's too much of it left, and our current infrastructure relies on it too heavily.
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Post by Lord Bismarcus on Jun 18, 2008 10:13:17 GMT -5
Oil usage will shrink enough for the middle east economy to collapse in on itself. Consumer-level usage for cars and stuff is already at least trying to turn the corner to use less oil or find other energy sources, and industrial-scale energy sources are increasingly going to turn to coal, wind, sea power, and possibly Solar/microwave power.
I'm sure nuclear power will also become more popular, and once somebody is able to sustain a stable fusion reaction, that's it. That'll be the industrial energy source for the whole planet. So my point is that the clock is very noticably ticking on the Arabs, and they seem to be more interested in blowing money than trying to plan out what kind of relevance they're going to have to the rest of the world once the world doesn't need their oil. Nobody paid any attention to the Middle East until we needed oil, and nobody is going to pay any more attention to them once we don't need the oil. So they need to figure out some other way to feed themselves. The upshot of this is that maybe it'll be more peaceful over there once they slip back into irrelevance.
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Post by Big League Chew on Jun 18, 2008 10:36:51 GMT -5
True enough. I just wonder if that'll truly happen within our lifetime, but I agree it'll happen.
As for being more peaceful, I dunno. Africa isn't exactly peaceful, though it's mostly considered irrelevant by the rest of the planet.
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Post by ________ I'm behind you. on Jun 18, 2008 10:42:24 GMT -5
robots will need the oil to lube their robotic parts once they take over.
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Post by Sugarbutt on Jun 18, 2008 10:55:31 GMT -5
sigh
Last week's US News actually had a pretty good story about Dubai and Abu Dhabi and their approaches to spending their oil wealth.
True story, Dubai itself exhausted it's oil reserves years ago.
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Post by Lord Bismarcus on Jun 18, 2008 11:27:19 GMT -5
Don't Start, Yoho.
Dubai is coasting along on its oil money.
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Post by castletongrad on Jun 18, 2008 12:43:17 GMT -5
I went forward in my time transport and checked on this one. Even though the US decreases oil consumption by 34% in the next 50 years, the Chinese increase in consumption more than takes up the slack. So I'm afraid we're stuck with the Arabian oil barons for the rest of our lifetimes...
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Post by Emuboy, VC Muppet 2008 on Jun 18, 2008 12:56:48 GMT -5
All I know is that cyberpunk sci-fi had it wrong. Americans wouldn't be speaking Japanese or Chinese, they'll be speakin' the spanish.
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Post by ________ I'm behind you. on Jun 18, 2008 13:22:44 GMT -5
I have both bases covered.
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Post by pinkard on Jun 18, 2008 13:49:30 GMT -5
China used 50% of all of the concrete produced in the world last year.
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Post by ________ I'm behind you. on Jun 18, 2008 13:54:30 GMT -5
why would they make railroads out of concrete?
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Phill
Administrator
Posts: 80
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Post by Phill on Jun 18, 2008 15:16:07 GMT -5
The Mideast will always be an important region for us as long as Israel is there. It just gets much more complicated when the surrounding countries run out of oil.
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Post by Delysid on Jun 18, 2008 15:22:17 GMT -5
Why do we care about Israel? Because of all the churchies?
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Phill
Administrator
Posts: 80
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Post by Phill on Jun 18, 2008 15:25:43 GMT -5
And the Jews.
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Post by Lord Bismarcus on Jun 18, 2008 15:28:48 GMT -5
See I think the whole Israel/Arab problem will largely be defused once there is no strategic interest in the region. The Arabs will simply have nothing of value, and will not be able to influence world events or anyone's economy. I just think they're being incredibly short-sighted.
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Phill
Administrator
Posts: 80
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Post by Phill on Jun 18, 2008 15:32:48 GMT -5
They'll still have people. Economically depressed people who will be more than happy to strap bombs on themselves and kill Jews. You don't think China would be happy to fund Hezbollah and Hamas under the table once the oil money currently funding them runs out?
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Post by Lord Bismarcus on Jun 18, 2008 16:10:25 GMT -5
Why would China give a shit about the Jews either way?
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Post by pinkard on Jun 18, 2008 16:18:20 GMT -5
They hate our freedom. They want to take away our Wall Street Journals.
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Post by justin credible on Jun 18, 2008 16:45:02 GMT -5
The Mideast will always be an important region for us as long as Israel is there. It just gets much more complicated when the surrounding countries run out of oil. Pretty much 100% true. As well as China having a influence in the area you also have russia, india and pakistan. Then you have the whole EU in there. BM them running out of oil will destabilize the regions even more. Right now the oil money is doing more for peace then any number of troops.
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Post by Lord Bismarcus on Jun 18, 2008 16:46:36 GMT -5
Sure but when it's "destabilized" at that point the only violence they're going to be able to afford is to kick sand at each other.
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Post by justin credible on Jun 18, 2008 16:48:44 GMT -5
Well ok let me rephrase it.
Countries are not going to war because war would damage there oil pumps and pipelines and hurt exporting it.
When that is gone, they will still have enough money to cause serious damage to there neighbors when they have nothing left. Even worse is if there neighbors still have oil wells.
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Post by Lord Bismarcus on Jun 18, 2008 16:49:46 GMT -5
Oh it'll be a mess for a few years, but was is incredibly expensive, and I doubt any country over there could really afford to wage a balls-out war for very long. And then they'd be done.
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Post by justin credible on Jun 18, 2008 16:51:15 GMT -5
Look at africa and while they don't wage conventional war you still have huge problems with genocide.
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Post by Lord Bismarcus on Jun 18, 2008 16:54:49 GMT -5
Yeah but see Africa never had the insane level of opulence that the Arabian peninsula currently has. That's why I referrenced the multi-thousand-feet-high skyscrapers. Who are they kidding? Those things are going to be gargantuan abandoned monoliths in 70 years because there will be no society over there capable of sustaining that kind of culture of excess.
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Post by justin credible on Jun 18, 2008 17:00:50 GMT -5
That's why I referrenced the multi-thousand-feet-high skyscrapers. Who are they kidding? Those things are going to be gargantuan abandoned monoliths in 70 years because there will be no society over there capable of sustaining that kind of culture of excess. Duh. The Burj hotel in dubai is like $50 just to go into the lobby if you aren't a guest. It is retarded. The thing is those countries do have enough of an army and can conscript enough people to make a huge mess of it before they run out of money. They also have fairly modern technology mostly supplied by the USA.
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Post by Lord Bismarcus on Jun 18, 2008 17:05:34 GMT -5
Large, modern, completely inept and meaningless armies that were never meant to fight. The entire region is built on show-armies, not functioning fighting armies.
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Post by justin credible on Jun 18, 2008 17:23:32 GMT -5
You could say the same thing about the USA's military because the lack of conventional wars for them to fight.
If you think the armies in the middle east won't fight then you are insane. They can fight and do a fair bit of damage.
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Post by Lord Bismarcus on Jun 18, 2008 17:38:01 GMT -5
Yes, I'm sure the UAE army is a military force the likes of which the world has never seen!
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Post by justin credible on Jun 18, 2008 18:01:51 GMT -5
I was thinking more of Saudi Arabia and Iran. UAE does have I think has around 60,000 troops and around 100ish f 16's
Sure nothing close to america but they do have a decent sized military. They have just as much manpower as canada does.
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